This dissertation was written as a part of the MSc in Energy Systems at the International
Hellenic University. Climate change is a growing problem, studied extensively during the
past few decades, focusing especially on our tampering with the environment. This
dissertation attempts to augment the work of Stern and Kaufmann (2014) through
several variables’ effects on temperature, with the implementation of more recent
econometric techniques. Additionally, it concentrates on possible explanations behind
dissimilar, with the aforementioned study, results, as well as on the outcomes’
progression over time. The analysis includes stationarity, cointegration and causality
investigation, achieved with more than two tests in each case, between several gases
radiative forcings and both HADCRUT4 and GISSv3 temperature time series, through a
direct, in both completely and partially aggregated models, as well as through an indirect
approach, in an entirely disaggregated model. Four scenarios are tested, and samples lie
within the 1850 to 2011 and 1958 to 2011 time span. The investigation of the evolution
of all the aforementioned causal relationships in all models and scenarios with time, using
the fixed window on a rolling basis method, is considered a novelty as regards the climate
change research. Results suggest that total, natural, anthropogenic and Greenhouse
Gases’ radiative forcings cause temperature to change, while human induced sulfur
emissions, solar irradiance and black carbon do not, throughout the largest part of the
time period. Most of this research outcome is consistent with theory and Stern and
Kaufmann (2014), with possible minor declination reasons the slightly different approach
to Toda Yamamoto causality testing.
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