The following report constitutes a detailed description of
the
steps required for
the
investigation of the potential nexus between two basic variables
,
which are crude oil prices
and stock returns
, interpreted through the S&P500 Index,
in the
market of the
USA. This
unidirectional causal relationship will be further analyzed imposing two intermediate causes,
which are investors’ sentiment and
p
rice earnings ratio. This means that the initial bivariate
approach
will be
further
expanded to a multivariate analysis of four different variables.
The
first part
includes some tests for the verification of the order of integration, a basic
precondition, as causality analysis is only valid under the assumption of stationarity.
Secondly, the selected methods of causality checking will be analyzed based on both a
tetravariate and a trivariate framework connecting all the associated variables.
Consequently
, the evaluation of the findings resulting from these methods as well as the
main conclusions will be analytically presented. The substance of these findings is that
strong causality linkages exist among the variables both directly and indirectly through the
intermediate interaction of the auxiliary variables. However, there is not a clear result
generally accepted among
the available tests, as they all lead to different causality
associations, some of which are significant and some not. In such a way, a completed
investigation of the channels of causality among the
selected
variables using
a causality
chain technique
is
finally
conducted.
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