This dissertation was written as
part of the MSc in Banking and Finance
at the
International Hellenic University.
The aim of this
study is to assess the impact of the latest guidelines from the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision, regarding the mitigation of market risk. The so
-
called Basel 2.5 Accord introduced the use of a stressed Value
-
at
-
Risk (SVaR) approach
obtained from one
-
year observations of a financially stressed period. The literature on
the subject is quite limited,
thus this study will enrich the existing literature with an up
-
to
-
date analysis of
how different
models and procedures use
d to estimate market risk
reacted
during the 2008 financial crisis and
how Basel 2.5 changed the market risk
related capital charges.
Six
models
were used
for the estimation of VaR and SVaR for a
period of 15 years, from 2001 to 2015, using the S&P 500 as a risk proxy. Moreover, a backtesting procedure was implemented to assess the performance of these models
and the capital charges were calculated under both regulatory frameworks, backwards
looking,
as if they were
in effect since 2001. Regarding the results,
there is strong
evidence against the use of the normality assumption and towards the use of the
student’s t
-
distribution, especially for periods of crisis. Furthermore, adequate charges
could be estimated even under the previous framework with the use of more
sophisticated models. The
new framework removes the incentive for the use of more
complex models, that can better estimate the risk, through the flattening effect in the
required capital, leading to the use of simpler methods
that significantly underestimate
risk in highly volatile periods while tending to overestimate the risk in periods of low
volatility. This forces the banks to keep unreasonably high capital as a reserve in
prosper
times, preventing them from using it in a more productive way.
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