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dc.contributor.author
Garakis, Nikolaos
en
dc.date.accessioned
2015-06-06T14:11:23Z
dc.date.available
2015-09-27T05:56:53Z
dc.date.issued
2015-06-06
dc.identifier.uri
https://repository.ihu.edu.gr//xmlui/handle/11544/232
dc.rights
Default License
dc.title
Analysis of the commodity spot prices key determinants, in the light of the creation of a commodity exchange market for olive oil in Greece
en
heal.type
masterThesis
heal.language
en
heal.access
free
el
heal.license
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
heal.recordProvider
School of Economics, Business Administration and Legal Studies, Executive MBA
heal.publicationDate
2014-06
heal.bibliographicCitation
Nikolaos Garakis, 2014, Analysis of the commodity spot prices key determinants, in the light of the creation of a commodity exchange market for olive oil in Greece,Master's Dissertation, International Hellenic University
en
heal.abstract
Last period the discussion of the implementation of a commodities exchange market in Greece returned to the scene; it is remarkable that there are two main options. The first option suggested from the Greek stock exchange regulator HELEX, consists of the creation of a commodities exchange market based on derivatives market, and having as primary underlying commodity the olive oil, where Greece is the 3rd biggest producer in the world after Spain and Italy. This commodities exchange market, is planned to be located in Athens area, whereas the second option suggests the creation of a commodities exchange market located in the second major Greek city Thessaloniki, in the North part. According to the last, this market will be orientated not at derivatives as the first, but as a cash market to physical delivery. A second market targeting also to physical delivery, would be created at the city of Piraeus, in Athens area. According the project, both institutions (Thessaloniki and Piraeus), will have a breakeven point of nearly 120 million Euros of transactions value per year, and shareholder equity of 10 million Euros. The supporters of the project claim that the operation of such markets will have a very positive effect on the local economy, and will help the counterparties to overcome the various problems which led to stagnation the commodity transactions. Out of the scope of defining the optimum numbers of markets, and the more suitable place to implement, the query which comes immediately is whether the creation of these commodity exchange markets, will have an impact on the development of the spot (real) prices of the commodities. As it was seen the last years, mainly in the energy but also in the agriculture sector, there are not few who are stating that the recent fluctuation of the recent years in crude oil as well as in the main agriculture products like wheat, was mostly due to the developments of the derivatives market posed to the respective commodities, than linked with the demand-supply chain of the underlying items. In the present study, the main basic concepts of a commodity market will be presented, and how investor expectations drive the interaction between spot and derivatives prices. Furthermore, a historical review on the spot prices over the last decades, and especially during the critical period after 2007, will take place. In the review of the related literature afterwards, the basic theories about key determinants of spot prices will be displayed, together with empirical results. Nonetheless, it should me mentioned that the data processed is not primary as this appeared quite difficult – especially for spot prices – but secondary. 3 Main figures of the olive oil in the global and domestic market will then be presented, together with the main declared goals of the Greek commodity market. In the last section, the arguments of the implementation of the commodity exchange market in Greece will be described, faced against the counterarguments, each of them justified from the related literature review and empirical evidence where existing.
en
heal.tableOfContents
1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Scope of commodity exchange markets ............................................................ 6 1.2 Type of markets and derivatives in Commodity markets .............................. 6 1.3 Hedging ............................................................................................................... 8 2. Commodity Market overview ................................................................................. 9 2.1 Status and trends in commodity derivatives markets ..................................... 9 2.1.1 Contango and bacwardation ................................................................. 9 2.1.2 Drivers of the commodity derivatives market ................................... 12 2.2 Status and trends in physical commodity markets ....................................... 14 3. Literature review ................................................................................................... 16 3.1 General Overview ............................................................................................. 16 3.2 Theories for interpreting spot prices behavior .............................................. 18 3.3 Commodity price determination formula ...................................................... 19 3.4 Empirical evidence ........................................................................................... 22 3.5 Results of the analysis of markets’ data ......................................................... 23 3.6 Interpretation of findings ................................................................................ 23 3.7 Inventories management- Theory overview ................................................... 24 3.8 The critical role of the inventories .................................................................. 25 4. The case of the Hellenic Commodity Exchange market ..................................... 25 4.1. General overview on the olive oil market ...................................................... 25 4.1.1 Production Capacity ............................................................................. 25 4.1.2 Consumption ......................................................................................... 26 4.1.3 Exports ................................................................................................... 27 4.1.4 Classification ......................................................................................... 27 4.1.5 Overview on prices ................................................................................ 28 4.2. Critical parameters for an olive oil exchange market .................................. 29 4.2.1 Storage ................................................................................................... 29 4.2.2 Sustainability ......................................................................................... 29 4.2.3 Olive oil Supply chain ........................................................................... 30 4.2.4 Olive oil exchange market structure ................................................... 31 5 4.2.5 Internal structure .................................................................................. 32 4.2.6 Settlement .............................................................................................. 34 4.2.7 Selected quality ...................................................................................... 35 5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 36 6. References ............................................................................................................... 39 7. Appendix ................................................................................................................. 43
en
heal.advisorName
Grose, Christos
en
heal.committeeMemberName
Dasilas, Apostolos
en
heal.committeeMemberName
Grose, Christos
en
heal.committeeMemberName
Leventis, Stergios
en
heal.academicPublisher
School of Economics and Business Administration, Executive MBA programme
en
heal.academicPublisherID
ihu
heal.numberOfPages
45
heal.fullTextAvailability
true


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