This study develops a unified stock market trading model, which is based
on a combination of technical trading rules and time series forecasts. The
assuming success of such a model is dependent on the different
predictable components of the abovementioned methods. The technical
trading analysis’s validity is derived from the Dow Theory about trends’
persistence, while stock markets’ characteristics such as volatility clusters
can be captured by GARCH processes. Buy (Sell) signals is going to be
generated through the combined model, with investors taking long
positions on buy signals and short positions on sell signals. Applied to
daily data (last prices) over an almost ten year period, the combined
model outperforms in most cases the technical and econometric model
predictions, but it fails to offer statistically significant better returns than
the benchmark “buy-and-hold” model. Possibly, the efficient market
hypothesis holds.
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