This dissertation was written as part of the MSc in
Banking and Finance
at the
International Hellenic University.
The main purpose of this study is
to present an
empirical model designed to forecast banks’
credit ratings using information from
their financial statements.
For this reason,
we have
used
ratings provided by Fitch in
2012. The sample consists of 92 US banks
with
their financial statements from 2008 to
2011.
Using the same financial data and for the same time frame as
(Go
gas,
Papadimitriou and Agrapetidou 2014)
in their study, we used machine learning (ML)
models
in order to
examine whether
they
are
more efficient than classical
econometric
techniques
that
were
used on their research
.
For this purpose
using
the
same data as
(Gogas, Papadimitriou and Agrapetidou 2014)
and following their
classification we trained the data both with linear and non
-
linear support vector
machines in order to examine whether the prediction accuracy is higher with support
vector machines rather than with ordered probit model
. According to the simulation
results
,in the optimal group of regressors,
both linear and non
-
linear (RBF
kernel)
Support Vector Machines
, can predict more accurately
credit ratings
with a
84
.
06
percent accuracy for the linear SVM which is slightly higher than the 83
.
7
0
percent
accuracy achieved by the ordered probit model of
(Gogas, Papadimitriou and
Agrapetidou 2014)
. On the other hand, non
-
linear SVMs
can predict much more
accurately
than ordered probit models with
99
.
64
percent
prediction
accuracy.
In
other words, using either Linear Support Vector Machine or non
-
linear RBF kernel we
can predict credit ratings more accurately than Ordered Probit model.
Collections
Show Collections