This dissertation was written as part of the MSc in Energy Law, Business, Regulation and Policy at the International Hellenic University.
Power of Siberia (POS) is a pipeline of hydrocarbons that will deliver natural gas from Siberia to China as expected in December 2019. Current dissertation attempts to foresee the redistribution of power in Northeast Asia regarding energy security, economy and politics as a tool of energy diplomacy. State of Art is developed in Chapter 1 and illustrates a discussion about the viability of POS and on the foregoing the Sino-Russian approach to POS in relation with POS future expansion and energy security goals of Northeast Asia. Afterwards, in Chapter 2 follows the analysis of theoretical background and the method of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis that is going to be implemented to geopolitical factor Power of Siberia with aim to detect the redistribution of power. Afterwards, Geopolitical system is illustrated and sub-systems are defined as: China-ROK-DPRK, Japan, Russia-China and Russia-Kazakhstan-Mongolia-China. Geopolitical pillars selected are economy and politics.
In Chapter 3 a deeper analysis is performed and geopolitical indicators are calculated for each sub-system. A composite weighted indicator of economy is formed from natural gas balance of trade, Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and Total Final Consumption (TFC), after normalization. In the field of politics, geopolitical indicator is related to policy documents published from ministries of Energy and Foreign Affairs, signed agreements and Memorandums of Understanding (MoU). Then an overall composite factor is formed by combination of indicators of economy and politics. In Chapter 4 the geopolitical model is produced with main findings that redistribution of power affects more the sub-system Russia-Kazakhstan-Mongolia-China. In Chapter 5 an attempt is made to develop geostrategic synthesis with suggestions for countries members of sub-systems and finally Chapter 6 comprises conclusions and suggestions for future research.
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