This dissertation was written as part of the MSc in Banking and Finance at the
International Hellenic University.
The objective of the current thesis is an effort to examine the relationship
between Bitcoin prices and stock market indices, as well as with stock prices of
big capitalization companies.
More specifically, it is an attempt to build a forecasting model that predicts
Bitcoin prices to the highest accuracy that could be achieved. Since Nakamoto
(2008) introduced the Bitcoin, the financial sectors have been struggling to
comprehend this financial instrument, as its complexity seems to draw the
attention of both investors and researchers. Due to its extreme volatility and
compound nature, the engaging in such a trading, requires a more detailed
evaluation and knowledge before stepping into the transaction environment.
As the transaction frequency arises, the need to observe and study its
behavior, attracts more and more researchers, with ultimate goal to build a
forecasting model, with decent forecasting accuracy, that predicts this
cryptocurrency's evolution.
In order for the model to achieve its best potential, we have to provide
multiple regressors. To support our research, we collected data from stock
indices as well as stock prices from companies with big market capitalization.
More specific, T. Panagiotidis et al. (2018) , after examining all potential
suggested drivers: stock market indices, oil and gold, interest rates and
internet trends, concludes that NIKKEI index is one of Bitcoin's determinants.
Regarding other stock market indices, positive correlation is obtained by DJ,
SSEC, and Nasdaq , setting the green light that more investigation on stock
market indices had to be done.
In addition, Salisu, Isah and Akanni, (2019) examines the effect of bitcoin prices
in predicting the stock returns of the G7 countries. The conclusion drawn from
this research is that the stock returns of the G7 are better forecasted when
using as inputs the bitcoin prices rather than the respective macroeconomic
factors. The main reason is that the G7 stock markets are integrated into the
world of economy and thus are more sensitive to external shocks than internal
shocks. The interesting aspect of this research is that Japan appears to be an
exception.
Our study is driven by conclusions mentioned in literature review but also by
results that did not appear to have a significant impact on that particular
research, but show some level of correction, intriguing us to investigate further
on them.
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