Creative Commons

A research associated with the Greek road transport sector was carried out in order to analyze the current status of energy demands and pollutant emissions along with differ-ent future scenarios and policies. A forecasting transport model has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demands and the associated emissions for the base year 2010 and extrapolated till 2035 for future scenarios and predictions. Base lines of the energy consumption and CO2 equivalent emissions of the road transport sector in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario were estimated by using a vehicle stock-turnover modeling ap-proach. Apart from business-as-usual scenario, the model was run under 17 alternative scenarios; substitution of conventional fuels by alternative fuels along with improved fuel economy of vehicle engines, by increasing efficiency, and introduction of alterna-tive technologies, to study the impact of different transport policies, better or worse, that would change energy demand and emissions in Greek transport sector. The prime objec-tive was to present alternative solutions and policies and conclude to an optimal one, which limits the future growth of energy demand as well as air pollutant emissions. The resulting energy demands and the CO2 emissions under each scenario were com-pared with the base line case of the BAU scenario. The reduction in energy demands and CO2 emissions mitigation of each case show that the implementation of improved fuel economy vehicles and alternative fuels and technologies have a significant potential to reduce energy demand and mitigate pollutant emissions in this sector.